MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (TSE:8725) jumps 13% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don’t use leverage) is 100% of your money. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. For instance the MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) share price is 253% higher than it was three years ago. Most would be happy with that. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 41% gain in the last three months.

After a strong gain in the past week, it’s worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 40% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 52% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

It is of course excellent to see how MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings’ financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was 304%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We’re pleased to report that MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 129% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 32%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com